Setting aside Lance Berkman, the Houston Astros 2010 infield is... well, it's pretty pathetic. The only other everyday starter certain to return is Kazuo Matsui.
Unfortunately, the Astros are also strapped for cash. Between current commitments, arbitration raises, and a lower payroll, Ed Wade is likely to have somewhere between $10 and $15 million to play with. That money is likely to be spent on starting pitching--or just wasted on a bunch of low-impact washed up veterans, knowing the Astros. Regardless, they may need to look into the trade market to find some help.
The best situation would be if they could do some shrewd wheeling and dealing with logjammed teams, or teams who might be willing to sell low on some guys with little future in their organizations. For instance, the Brewers and J.J. Hardy. He's a great defensive shortstop with obvious offensive potential (as demonstrated in 2008)--a young bounceback candidate.
Or, to get a little more obscure, how about the Yankees' second base/utility prospect Kevin Russo, who hit for .326/.397/.431 this year at their AAA club? He went to school here in Texas (at Baylor University). The Yankees won't have any everyday need for him in their infield for a long time, and might be willing to part with him for a couple of low-A prospects.
Obviously, it's important the Astros not trash the farm system again. That's why it will be important not to give up any top prospects, and especially not to trade for any veterans due big money. Try to pick up somebody with at least a couple years of club control left, with lots of upside, who won't cost much money following the trade.
Perhaps pickups could be made by swapping players acquired in the Rule 5 Draft. How about trading Drew Locke for former Astros prospect Neil Sellers, who posted a .317/.383/.486 line at third base with the Phillies' AA affiliate this year? He's already 27, but we're not exactly swimming in third base options, are we? Unless you'd rather see Chris Johnson strike out all season.
Any other ideas? Drop me a comment and fire away!
Friday, October 9, 2009
Tuesday, October 6, 2009
Houston Astros 2010: Send In The Clowns!
Thanks to mugaro from the MLB.com comments thread for giving me the topic of this post.
The Astros have agreed to exercise Brian Moehler's (5.47 ERA, 37 this year) $3 million option for 2010.
The stupidity hurts my brain.
The Astros have agreed to exercise Brian Moehler's (5.47 ERA, 37 this year) $3 million option for 2010.
The stupidity hurts my brain.
Sunday, October 4, 2009
Should Miguel Tejada Play Third Base for the Astros in 2010?
Miguel Tejada has never been a great defensive shortstop, but he has always been a good hitter. Perhaps he was always destined to play third base, and I suspect he'll do so next year, whether he plays for the Astros or not.
The question is, should be play third base for us. Part of the answer to that question will depend upon how much money he wants to come back. I can't answer that question, but I can compare Tejada to other players on the market.
Regardless of whether Tejada comes back, we'll have Jeff Keppinger under contract next season. He's pretty much a lefty-hitting specialist, batting to the melodious tune of .314/.360/.441 against LHP this season (pretty similar to Tejada's .326/.349/.482 line, as a matter of fact). While his range isn't great, he's passable at third base defensively.
So let's keep in mind that if we can find a decent right-handed specialist to pair with him--in other words, somebody whose last name isn't Blum--a Keppinger/somebody else combination might be perfectly viable.
Russell Branyan might be that guy. Against righties, he hit for a .267/.363/.542 line this season, with 21 homers and 50 RBI in half a season's worth of plate appearances. Maybe not star numbers, but not far off. He's had some experience at third base and might be able to play the position adequately.
Adam Kennedy is another option. He batted .306/.370/.438 against right-handed pitchers this season, playing third base much of the time.
Either of these guys would probably be better than Blum and would be a good fit with Keppinger.
So let's take a look at this season's stat comparisons:
Tejada: .314/.341/.455
Branyan (RHP)/Keppinger (LHP): .280/.361/.514
Kennedy (RHP)/Keppinger (LHP): .308/.364/.438
To summarize a little bit and state the obvious, letting Tejada go and picking up Branyan to pair with Keppinger would result in a loss in batting average, but significant gains in the more-important on-base percentage and slugging percentage. The comparison between Tejada and Kennedy/Keppinger (the killer K's? Too soon?) is closer--a slight sacrifice in slugging for a noticeable improvement in getting on base.
Defensively, it would be impossible to compare without knowing how Tejada will do at third base, so I'm not sure how much that can factor into the decision.
Either of these options would be cheaper than Tejada, though perhaps a little riskier, not knowing if they will maintain production like he has. Adding Branyan might even be an upgrade over Tejada at the position.
Would they be cheap enough to take the risk? Probably, yes. Tejada is, by all accounts, a great clubhouse leader and a good guy, but he's coming off a $13MM year with production that nearly justified his cost (he was worth $11.9MM according to FanGraphs). It's highly unlikely that he will demand anything less than around $7MM, and it would be hard to blame him. As platoon guys, Branyan or Kennedy would be much cheaper, especially being less recognizable names.
The money we saved on a third baseman could go toward starting pitching. But that's a discussion for another post.
The question is, should be play third base for us. Part of the answer to that question will depend upon how much money he wants to come back. I can't answer that question, but I can compare Tejada to other players on the market.
Regardless of whether Tejada comes back, we'll have Jeff Keppinger under contract next season. He's pretty much a lefty-hitting specialist, batting to the melodious tune of .314/.360/.441 against LHP this season (pretty similar to Tejada's .326/.349/.482 line, as a matter of fact). While his range isn't great, he's passable at third base defensively.
So let's keep in mind that if we can find a decent right-handed specialist to pair with him--in other words, somebody whose last name isn't Blum--a Keppinger/somebody else combination might be perfectly viable.
Russell Branyan might be that guy. Against righties, he hit for a .267/.363/.542 line this season, with 21 homers and 50 RBI in half a season's worth of plate appearances. Maybe not star numbers, but not far off. He's had some experience at third base and might be able to play the position adequately.
Adam Kennedy is another option. He batted .306/.370/.438 against right-handed pitchers this season, playing third base much of the time.
Either of these guys would probably be better than Blum and would be a good fit with Keppinger.
So let's take a look at this season's stat comparisons:
Tejada: .314/.341/.455
Branyan (RHP)/Keppinger (LHP): .280/.361/.514
Kennedy (RHP)/Keppinger (LHP): .308/.364/.438
To summarize a little bit and state the obvious, letting Tejada go and picking up Branyan to pair with Keppinger would result in a loss in batting average, but significant gains in the more-important on-base percentage and slugging percentage. The comparison between Tejada and Kennedy/Keppinger (the killer K's? Too soon?) is closer--a slight sacrifice in slugging for a noticeable improvement in getting on base.
Defensively, it would be impossible to compare without knowing how Tejada will do at third base, so I'm not sure how much that can factor into the decision.
Either of these options would be cheaper than Tejada, though perhaps a little riskier, not knowing if they will maintain production like he has. Adding Branyan might even be an upgrade over Tejada at the position.
Would they be cheap enough to take the risk? Probably, yes. Tejada is, by all accounts, a great clubhouse leader and a good guy, but he's coming off a $13MM year with production that nearly justified his cost (he was worth $11.9MM according to FanGraphs). It's highly unlikely that he will demand anything less than around $7MM, and it would be hard to blame him. As platoon guys, Branyan or Kennedy would be much cheaper, especially being less recognizable names.
The money we saved on a third baseman could go toward starting pitching. But that's a discussion for another post.
Saturday, October 3, 2009
Should Lance Berkman be given an extension now?
As we all know, it's been a bad season for the Big Puma. Lance himself isn't happy with how he's performed this year. Going into the final game of the season, he's at a .274/.400/.511 line.
That is, by the way, .911 OPS. Hey, wait a second. That's pretty good!
Actually, it's pretty great. And this is a bad year. While it's going to be a career low in batting average (not counting his rookie season) barring a massive game tomorrow, it's not a career low in OPS; he was worse in 2007, actually, putting up fairly similar numbers.
And in 2008, he bounced back to have a massive year. That's been his pattern, as a matter of fact; every time Lance Berkman does poorly (by his standards), he rebounds the next year.
But even setting that aside, .900 OPS hitters are hard to find. Even at first base.
Lance Berkman is 33. He's said multiple times that he thinks he will retire in 2013 or 2014; by then we will likely have prospects ready to take his place. Right now, the Astros have nobody. They won't for at least a couple more years.
Berkman's contract runs through 2010 with an option for the year after that. Based on the interviews he's given, Lance perceives his value as being down, and WAR (Wins Above Replacement) would agree, though he's still a valuable player, as I've already addressed. Because of this, now would be an excellent time to negotiate for an extension through 2013. Do it after a rebound year, and you're bound to overpay; do it this year, and you can get Berkman through the end of his career with a healthy but not inflated salary.
It would also be an excellent time to approach Berkman about deferring some of his salary to the late years of his contract so that the Astros can afford to be more spendy on the free agent market this winter; that, perhaps, could be included in the terms of the contract, while otherwise it would just come across as begging.
I've read some talk about trading Lance; I don't think this is wise unless the Astros are prepared to go into full-blown rebuild mode. Lance would be much harder to replace than our other expensive contracts (like Carlos Lee and Roy Oswalt), and he remains one of our most valuable hitters. It might be within the realm of possibility that one of the three will be traded, but I can't see Drayton McLane and Ed Wade tearing the whole thing down, and Berkman is the least likely to go.
So keep him and use him as a veteran to build around for the next four years. And do it now to get the best deal.
That is, by the way, .911 OPS. Hey, wait a second. That's pretty good!
Actually, it's pretty great. And this is a bad year. While it's going to be a career low in batting average (not counting his rookie season) barring a massive game tomorrow, it's not a career low in OPS; he was worse in 2007, actually, putting up fairly similar numbers.
And in 2008, he bounced back to have a massive year. That's been his pattern, as a matter of fact; every time Lance Berkman does poorly (by his standards), he rebounds the next year.
But even setting that aside, .900 OPS hitters are hard to find. Even at first base.
Lance Berkman is 33. He's said multiple times that he thinks he will retire in 2013 or 2014; by then we will likely have prospects ready to take his place. Right now, the Astros have nobody. They won't for at least a couple more years.
Berkman's contract runs through 2010 with an option for the year after that. Based on the interviews he's given, Lance perceives his value as being down, and WAR (Wins Above Replacement) would agree, though he's still a valuable player, as I've already addressed. Because of this, now would be an excellent time to negotiate for an extension through 2013. Do it after a rebound year, and you're bound to overpay; do it this year, and you can get Berkman through the end of his career with a healthy but not inflated salary.
It would also be an excellent time to approach Berkman about deferring some of his salary to the late years of his contract so that the Astros can afford to be more spendy on the free agent market this winter; that, perhaps, could be included in the terms of the contract, while otherwise it would just come across as begging.
I've read some talk about trading Lance; I don't think this is wise unless the Astros are prepared to go into full-blown rebuild mode. Lance would be much harder to replace than our other expensive contracts (like Carlos Lee and Roy Oswalt), and he remains one of our most valuable hitters. It might be within the realm of possibility that one of the three will be traded, but I can't see Drayton McLane and Ed Wade tearing the whole thing down, and Berkman is the least likely to go.
So keep him and use him as a veteran to build around for the next four years. And do it now to get the best deal.
An Unofficial Weblog for the Houston Astros
Welcome to Armchair Astros. This is a blog about baseball--Houston Astros baseball. More than that, it's a blog for analysis of the team, particularly focused on its future.
Coming to the close of a losing season, that means there will be a fair share of negativity--or at least the underlying assumption thereof. That said, I'll try to take a "glass is half full" approach to the future while I take a hard look at the past and present of the Astros.
So, fans from Houston and fans from afar, welcome to the blog. Your voices are as welcome as mine; please comment and argue and commiserate as we look back on a dreadful 2009 season and forward to, hopefully, a better one in 2010.
Coming to the close of a losing season, that means there will be a fair share of negativity--or at least the underlying assumption thereof. That said, I'll try to take a "glass is half full" approach to the future while I take a hard look at the past and present of the Astros.
So, fans from Houston and fans from afar, welcome to the blog. Your voices are as welcome as mine; please comment and argue and commiserate as we look back on a dreadful 2009 season and forward to, hopefully, a better one in 2010.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)